Eastern Partnership Model
Simulating Passenger and Freight Demand for the Eastern Partnership
The Eastern Partnership (EaP) Model was developed to simulate international and regional passenger and freight demand across road, rail, and water networks. Initiated in 2017 by the World Bank in cooperation with citiEU, the model supports strategic transport planning for the Eastern Partnership region and has been periodically updated, with the latest major revision completed in 2024.
​
The model integrates geopolitical issues, such as conflicts in Ukraine, Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan border disputes. Due to the instability, 2019 was selected as the base year (pre-COVID and pre-war). Freight demand was recalculated using BACI trade data, while passenger demand assumptions were adjusted for conflict-affected zones. Forecast years were set to 2030 and 2035.
Key Challenges Addressed:
-
Accurately reflecting geopolitical disruptions in model inputs.
-
Supporting transport investment decisions through scenario analysis.
-
Prioritizing infrastructure projects on the TEN-T network.​
Outcomes:
-
Provided a realistic snapshot of regional transport conditions.
-
Forecasted future demand under various scenarios.
-
Enable data-driven decisions for funding and policy planning.
The model helps identify corridors with high potential for modal shift to greener transport (e.g., electrified rail), supports strategic placement of logistics centres to reduce unnecessary trips, and helps prioritize projects with environmental benefits, improving resource allocation efficiency.
Contact Us
Get in touch so we can start working together.
